The regional median home price was up again in October, despite shrinking demand heading into the winter season.  The median sold price settled at $440,000 this month compared to $425,000 in October of 2022, representing a nearly 4% year-over-year increase.  Units sold were down nearly 20%, coming in at 410 this October compared to 506 units sold last year.  Total sold dollar volume was down nearly 19%, posting approximately $195.5 million in sales for October of 2023 compared to $240 million in sales last year. 

Spotsylvania County was especially notable in October posting its second highest median sold price on record.  The month saw prices soar to $470,000 compared to $400,000 in October of last year.  This price was eclipsed only by August of this year when median price rose to $472,500. 

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, was static compared to last October, coming in at 26 days.  Continued constrained supply is keeping days on market down since there isn’t much out there for active buyers to choose from.    

Inventory was also down again in October, finishing out the month with 900 active listings compared to 1,012 last year, an 11% decline.  New listings were down nearly 20% from last October with 514 homes coming on the market in 2023 compared to 638 last year.  New pending sales were down 10% in October, with 424 pending contracts compared to 470 last year.  Inventory continues to be challenged as homeowners experience the “lock-in” effect of having very low existing mortgage rates.  In the last 10 years, the average rate of mortgages in the Commonwealth fell from 5.2% to 3.8% as people bought homes or refinanced existing mortgages when rates sank to their lowest in history.  As rates have increased over the last year, there is a huge delta between what mortgage rate homeowners have right now and what rate they would get if they moved.  This delta locks them into their current properties as they wait for rates to come down before considering a move.

The tide may be turning on increasing mortgage rates as the Mortgage Bankers Association came out with their 2024 projections showing great news for 2024.  “The mortgage rate is predicted to be in the low 6% range by the fourth quarter of 2024,” states FAAR Board of Director Sherrie Shaw.  “Even better, 2025 rates are projected to be in the mid-5% range, which should really help in getting sellers off the sidelines.”  A moderation in mortgage rates will help motivate move-up buyers to list their homes and ease the inventory crunch that has plagued the market for years now.

The weather might be cooling off, but local home prices certainly are not.  The region’s median sold price was up nearly 4% in September coming in at $435,000 compared to $420,000 last September.  Volume of sales continues its downward trend posting a nearly 17% decline from last year, with approximately $207.4 million in sales this September compared to $249.1 million during the same period last year.  High prices and lack of inventory continue to depress demand with units sold down another 21% this September with 552 homes sold last year compared to 435 homes sold this year. 

“The Fredericksburg area real estate market remains subject to various external factors, with interest rates being a prominent influence,” states FAAR Board of Director LeAnn Black. “We are seeing a marginal uptick in the number of days properties spend on the market and this presents a favorable window of opportunity for homebuyers. They aren’t merely searching for any home; they are seeking move-in-ready properties and are often willing to pay a premium for such convenience.”

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, remained similar to last year.  Houses were on the market for an average of 25 days this September compared to 23 days last year. 

Inventory was also down again in September, finishing out the month with 859 active listings compared to 1,038 last year, a 17% decline.  New listings were down a whopping 37% from last year with 491 homes coming on the market in September of 2023 compared to 775 last year.  New pending sales were down 26% in September, with 414 pending contracts compared to 557 last year.  Mortgage interest rates approaching 8% have would-be sellers holding off, contributing to the already low housing inventory.

“Current homeowners have been benefiting from their prevailing low interest rates, prompting many to remain on the sidelines,” continues Black.  “Home sellers could explore an alternative option: the average home equity in Virginia currently stands at approximately $147,000. Home prices in the area continue to rise steadily. By selling their current homes and utilizing their accrued equity to bolster their down payment on a new property, home sellers can potentially mitigate the impact of current interest rates. This strategic move could prove advantageous in navigating the evolving real estate landscape.”

The regional median home price was up again in August, with every locality seeing increases.  The median sold price settled at $450,000 in August of 2023 compared to $427,000 in August of 2022, representing a nearly 6% year-over-year increase.  Units sold were down 25%, coming in at 516 compared to 691 units sold last August.  Total sold dollar volume was down over 18%, posting approximately $256.2 million in sales for August of 2023 compared to $313 million in sales last year. 

“In the thriving real estate landscape of the Fredericksburg region, a fascinating interplay between factors is shaping the current market conditions,” states FAAR Board of Director Matthew Rathbun.  “The realm of rising home prices harmonizing with gradually increasing interest rates has unquestionably left its mark on the real estate landscape. We are observing a small, but notable rise in the months supply of available housing, along with sales prices commanding an average of 103% of the initial asking prices.”

The City of Fredericksburg posted its highest median sales price on record, coming in at $535,000 in August, up 31% from last year.  The City is a smaller market so more subject to fluctuations in the housing stock sold, but that number is still notable.  The City’s lowest median price in the last ten years came in May of 2015 with a median sold price of just $210,575. 

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, remained static from last year.  Houses were on the market for an average of 23 days this August compared to 22 days last year. 

Inventory was also down again in August, finishing out the month with 848 active listings compared to 979 last year, a 13% decline.  After trending up into the 1,000+ homes on the market for the second half of 2022, the market seems to have settled into a consistent 700-900 homes on the market.  This new normal is about 1,000 homes short of pre-2020 levels.  New listings were down 16% from last year with 603 homes coming on the market in August of 2023 compared to 722 last year.  New pending sales were down 12% in August, with 521 pending contracts compared to 591 last year. 

Rathbun continues, “Home sellers are exhibiting a degree of caution in the idea of selling their residences due to the desire to retain historically low interest rates they’ve secured over the past decade. This inclination is, in turn, contributing to the limited inventory of available homes.  Prospective homebuyers are navigating a landscape that elicits a sense of exhaustion because of the scarcity of options. While the trend of multiple offers persists for freshly-listed homes, the fervor and urgency seen in buyers over the last three years are undergoing a gradual reduction. As the year unfolds, it’s foreseeable that sales prices will maintain their slight upward trajectory due to the scarcity-driven competition, even as buyer activity tapers off as the year draws to a close. The convergence of an early start to the school season, a constrained housing inventory, and the upward movement of interest rates collectively suggest a notable slowing of the market’s momentum as we transition from the vibrant autumn season into the winter months.”