The Fredericksburg regional housing market continues to show signs of a softening market, but prices remain stubbornly high in many jurisdictions.  Total sold dollar volume took a staggering 37% drop this November coming in at approximately $193.5 million compared to more than $305 million last November.  That decline was fueled by a more than 42% reduction in sales from the previous year with 715 homes being sold in November of 2021, compared with just 412 this November.  Despite cratering sales, median price remained high coming in at $424,715 which represents a nearly 8% year-over-year increase from last year’s median sales price of $395,000. 

“Volatile interest rates led to a decline in the number of buyers actively looking for homes,” comments FAAR Board of Director Abby Fitzsimmons.  “Fewer buyers looking led to more inventory available.  This shift has given buyers the leverage to win contracts with home inspections and even some seller subsidies, something that buyers have not seen in the previous crazy seller’s market.  Although buyers have some leverage, home values remain stable.  A few months ago, buyers were having to offer more than list price and waive appraisals or pay for appraisal gaps.  Instead of homes going above list price now, they are selling for list price with concessions.  Homes that are over-priced are sitting.  Interest rates fell slightly towards the end of the month, but this is coinciding with the start of the holiday season, so we’ll see if those buyers will start looking again or wait until after the holidays,” concludes Fitzsimmons.

While median price rose for yet another month at the regional level, individual jurisdictions are seeing both plummeting sales, and in some cases, falling prices.  Caroline and Orange counties, along with the City of Fredericksburg and the Town of Colonial Beach, all posted year-over-year price declines in November.  However, King George, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties all saw price increases.  Spotsylvania County was a notable standout with a nearly 14% increase in median price in November going from $370,000 last year to $420,000 this year.  

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, increased another 35% this October, coming in at 27 days versus 20 last year. 

Active listings jumped nearly 40% over last year with 974 homes on the market at the end of November 2022 versus 704 last year.  While the number of active listings is a constantly changing number, dipping below 1,000 homes available demonstrates how competitive even this changing market remains with low supply.  The market is still several hundred homes short of where it was at the end of 2019.  New listings were down again this month, with 537 new homes coming on the market compared to 668 last November.  New pendings remain down with 400 new contracts ratified in November compared to 636 last year, representing a nearly 38% year-over-year decline. 

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