Business Resources

The Fredericksburg regional housing market continues to show signs of a softening market, but prices remain stubbornly high in many jurisdictions.  Total sold dollar volume took a staggering 37% drop this November coming in at approximately $193.5 million compared to more than $305 million last November.  That decline was fueled by a more than 42% reduction in sales from the previous year with 715 homes being sold in November of 2021, compared with just 412 this November.  Despite cratering sales, median price remained high coming in at $424,715 which represents a nearly 8% year-over-year increase from last year’s median sales price of $395,000. 

“Volatile interest rates led to a decline in the number of buyers actively looking for homes,” comments FAAR Board of Director Abby Fitzsimmons.  “Fewer buyers looking led to more inventory available.  This shift has given buyers the leverage to win contracts with home inspections and even some seller subsidies, something that buyers have not seen in the previous crazy seller’s market.  Although buyers have some leverage, home values remain stable.  A few months ago, buyers were having to offer more than list price and waive appraisals or pay for appraisal gaps.  Instead of homes going above list price now, they are selling for list price with concessions.  Homes that are over-priced are sitting.  Interest rates fell slightly towards the end of the month, but this is coinciding with the start of the holiday season, so we’ll see if those buyers will start looking again or wait until after the holidays,” concludes Fitzsimmons.

While median price rose for yet another month at the regional level, individual jurisdictions are seeing both plummeting sales, and in some cases, falling prices.  Caroline and Orange counties, along with the City of Fredericksburg and the Town of Colonial Beach, all posted year-over-year price declines in November.  However, King George, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties all saw price increases.  Spotsylvania County was a notable standout with a nearly 14% increase in median price in November going from $370,000 last year to $420,000 this year.  

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, increased another 35% this October, coming in at 27 days versus 20 last year. 

Active listings jumped nearly 40% over last year with 974 homes on the market at the end of November 2022 versus 704 last year.  While the number of active listings is a constantly changing number, dipping below 1,000 homes available demonstrates how competitive even this changing market remains with low supply.  The market is still several hundred homes short of where it was at the end of 2019.  New listings were down again this month, with 537 new homes coming on the market compared to 668 last November.  New pendings remain down with 400 new contracts ratified in November compared to 636 last year, representing a nearly 38% year-over-year decline. 

The local real estate continues to moderate from its meteoric rise over the last two years.  While prices remain high and inventory remains below historical trends, the market continues to slow with double digit decreases in sold volume and units sold and double digit increases in days on market.  Total sold dollar volume was down nearly 14% in August of 2022 going from more than $362 million last summer to just over $313.4 million this August.  Units sold decreased 21% with nearly 200 hundred less homes sold this August versus last year.  There were 876 home sales in August of 2021 compared to 691 in August of this year. 

FAAR Board Member Matthew Rathbun comments, “The market is complex and its interpretation can largely differ based on the price-range and type of property that a consumer is seeking to buy or sell.  We still suffer from a lack of inventory in the mid-level to affordable housing price ranges.  Some sellers are still experiencing multiple offers and favorable terms in the average priced markets.  Buyers and Sellers need to speak to an experienced and professional REALTOR® to get an idea of how the market will impact the seller or buyer in their unique position.”

Median price remains high, clocking in at $427,000 versus $390,000 last August, representing a nearly 10% year-over-year increase.  While prices remain high, the market is seeing trends that indicate we could be approaching a point where prices will start to moderate as sellers ask more than buyers are willing to pay.  Since early 2020, sellers had been consistently getting 100% if not more than their asking price, however that trend has started to reverse with August seeing sellers receiving on average 98.7% of asking price.

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, increased a staggering 83% this August, coming in at 22 days versus just 12 last year.  This increase puts days on market more in line with historical trends for August, which sits at 26 days.

Rathbun continues, “Higher priced homes and the luxury market are seeing extended days on the market as most buyers in that range have elected to remain in place and not move up.  Buyers are regaining some control of the buying process as they did prior to 2020 and benefitting from reasonable and competitive negotiation positions, home inspections and housing options.  Sellers are still seeing strong offers by well-qualified buyers at or near asking price, when asking for a fair market price.”

Active listings continue to increase, jumping 8% over last year with 979 homes on the market at the end of August 2022 versus 901 last year.  The market is still seeing about 300 less homes on the market than the 5-year average for August, but supply is coming back to levels that local agents are used to seeing.  New listings were down again this month, with 722 new homes coming on the market compared to 941 last August.  New pendings remain down with 591 new contracts ratified in August compared to 849 last August, representing a 30% year-over-year decline.