The regional median home price was up again in October, despite shrinking demand heading into the winter season.  The median sold price settled at $440,000 this month compared to $425,000 in October of 2022, representing a nearly 4% year-over-year increase.  Units sold were down nearly 20%, coming in at 410 this October compared to 506 units sold last year.  Total sold dollar volume was down nearly 19%, posting approximately $195.5 million in sales for October of 2023 compared to $240 million in sales last year. 

Spotsylvania County was especially notable in October posting its second highest median sold price on record.  The month saw prices soar to $470,000 compared to $400,000 in October of last year.  This price was eclipsed only by August of this year when median price rose to $472,500. 

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, was static compared to last October, coming in at 26 days.  Continued constrained supply is keeping days on market down since there isn’t much out there for active buyers to choose from.    

Inventory was also down again in October, finishing out the month with 900 active listings compared to 1,012 last year, an 11% decline.  New listings were down nearly 20% from last October with 514 homes coming on the market in 2023 compared to 638 last year.  New pending sales were down 10% in October, with 424 pending contracts compared to 470 last year.  Inventory continues to be challenged as homeowners experience the “lock-in” effect of having very low existing mortgage rates.  In the last 10 years, the average rate of mortgages in the Commonwealth fell from 5.2% to 3.8% as people bought homes or refinanced existing mortgages when rates sank to their lowest in history.  As rates have increased over the last year, there is a huge delta between what mortgage rate homeowners have right now and what rate they would get if they moved.  This delta locks them into their current properties as they wait for rates to come down before considering a move.

The tide may be turning on increasing mortgage rates as the Mortgage Bankers Association came out with their 2024 projections showing great news for 2024.  “The mortgage rate is predicted to be in the low 6% range by the fourth quarter of 2024,” states FAAR Board of Director Sherrie Shaw.  “Even better, 2025 rates are projected to be in the mid-5% range, which should really help in getting sellers off the sidelines.”  A moderation in mortgage rates will help motivate move-up buyers to list their homes and ease the inventory crunch that has plagued the market for years now.

The weather might be cooling off, but local home prices certainly are not.  The region’s median sold price was up nearly 4% in September coming in at $435,000 compared to $420,000 last September.  Volume of sales continues its downward trend posting a nearly 17% decline from last year, with approximately $207.4 million in sales this September compared to $249.1 million during the same period last year.  High prices and lack of inventory continue to depress demand with units sold down another 21% this September with 552 homes sold last year compared to 435 homes sold this year. 

“The Fredericksburg area real estate market remains subject to various external factors, with interest rates being a prominent influence,” states FAAR Board of Director LeAnn Black. “We are seeing a marginal uptick in the number of days properties spend on the market and this presents a favorable window of opportunity for homebuyers. They aren’t merely searching for any home; they are seeking move-in-ready properties and are often willing to pay a premium for such convenience.”

Days on market, the time it takes from when a listing enters the market until it receives a ratified contract and is removed from active status on the multiple listing service, remained similar to last year.  Houses were on the market for an average of 25 days this September compared to 23 days last year. 

Inventory was also down again in September, finishing out the month with 859 active listings compared to 1,038 last year, a 17% decline.  New listings were down a whopping 37% from last year with 491 homes coming on the market in September of 2023 compared to 775 last year.  New pending sales were down 26% in September, with 414 pending contracts compared to 557 last year.  Mortgage interest rates approaching 8% have would-be sellers holding off, contributing to the already low housing inventory.

“Current homeowners have been benefiting from their prevailing low interest rates, prompting many to remain on the sidelines,” continues Black.  “Home sellers could explore an alternative option: the average home equity in Virginia currently stands at approximately $147,000. Home prices in the area continue to rise steadily. By selling their current homes and utilizing their accrued equity to bolster their down payment on a new property, home sellers can potentially mitigate the impact of current interest rates. This strategic move could prove advantageous in navigating the evolving real estate landscape.”